Thu, Dec 16, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Los Angeles Kings 4, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 114 | 210 | 17 | 431 |
| FLA | 115 | 015 | 012 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:56FLAMatt KierstedAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Reinhart · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 17:05LAKOlli MaattaAssists: Carl Grundstrom, Trevor Moore · Slap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 3:27LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Sean Durzi, Alex Iafallo · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 12:58LAKDustin BrownAssists: Matt Roy · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 7:02LAKArthur KaliyevAssists: Blake Lizotte · Snap, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:59FLAGrigori Denisenko: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:42LAKViktor Arvidsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 1:10FLAEetu Luostarinen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:33LAKJonathan Quick: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:01LAKSean Durzi: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:04LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Reinhart
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev6:09
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Iafallo12:03
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Kempe8:52
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Grundstrom – Moore – Kupari9:04
xG 0.33–0.79 (30%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Roy15:43
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Wolanin – Anderson10:58
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Roy – Anderson2:48
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Heponiemi – Luostarinen8:16
xG 0.74–0.06 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Reinhart9:49
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Tippett – Denisenko – Lundell7:45
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Carlsson7:34
xG 0.48–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Carlsson – Priskie9:59
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kiersted9:20
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).