Thu, Dec 16, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Vegas Golden Knights 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 113 | 17 | 310 | 530 |
| NJD | 16 | 015 | 25 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41NJDJack HughesAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 10:27VGKDylan CoghlanPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 3:47VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Brett Howden · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 7:37VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Reilly Smith, Dylan Coghlan · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 8:10VGKNicolas RoyGWGAssists: Mattias Janmark, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 10:03NJDTomas TatarPPAssists: Damon Severson, Ty Smith · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 12:29NJDJimmy VeseySHAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler, Michael McLeod · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 18:53VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: William Karlsson, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.77 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:33VGKWilliam Carrier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:42NJDDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:48NJDJanne Kuokkanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:48VGKDylan Coghlan: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:03NJDDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:30VGKDylan Coghlan: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:42NJDNathan Bastian: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:45VGKRobin Lehner: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:45VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:45NJDMason Geertsen: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Sharangovich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:01
xG 0.84–0.34 (71%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Howden9:19
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:48
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Janmark – Roy9:09
xG 0.26–0.73 (26%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague15:19
xG 0.91–0.77 (54%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Hutton – Coghlan9:04
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton2:16
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Johnsson – Mercer5:08
xG 0.07–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kuokkanen – Studenic – Sharangovich5:15
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Zacha – Bratt – Hughes9:06
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Vesey – Bastian – McLeod9:39
xG 0.41–0.67 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Smith14:03
xG 1.29–0.63 (67%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Severson – Siegenthaler14:41
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).