Thu, Dec 16, 2021·UBS Arena, Elmont
Boston Bruins 1, New York Islanders 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 021 | 112 | 141 |
| NYI | 110 | 112 | 16 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:47NYICal ClutterbuckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:44NYIAnthony BeauvillierPPGWGAssists: Robin Salo, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 17:43NYICal ClutterbuckENAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.68 xG0–3
- P3 19:06BOSMike ReillyAssists: Brandon Carlo, Linus Ullmark · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:23NYIKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:00BOSErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:06BOSDerek Forbort: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:22NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:22BOSNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:22BOSNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:25NYIZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:25BOSCharlie McAvoy: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:27NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:25BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Hall – Pastrnak13:11
xG 0.97–0.41 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Foligno – Haula – Nosek7:12
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Studnicka – Froden9:02
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton8:09
xG 0.66–0.17 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Reilly – Clifton2:19
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy13:30
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier9:57
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:12
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Czarnik3:40
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Wahlstrom6:30
xG 0.36–0.53 (41%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Pelech11:12
xG 0.69–0.81 (46%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Chara – Dobson10:56
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Chara – Mayfield3:13
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).