Thu, Dec 16, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 213 | 19 | 04 | 326 |
| CAR | 317 | 08 | 28 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05CARNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Jesper Fast, Andrew Poturalski · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 5:32DETSam GagnerUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 7:36CARTony DeAngeloAssists: Jesper Fast, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 13:54DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 18:40CARJack DruryAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P2 11:19DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 0:18CARNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Brett Pesce · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:55CARVincent TrocheckENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Martin Necas · Backhand, 0.79 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:12DETTyler Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:21CAREthan Bear: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:02CARJack Drury: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:08CARMartin Necas: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Rowney – Smith6:08
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond14:26
xG 0.96–0.76 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 2–1
- Erne – Veleno – Zadina3:39
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Suter – Zadina5:43
xG 0.15–0.69 (18%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Seider5:32
xG 0.49–0.13 (78%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Staal – Seider2:17
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Lindstrom4:46
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Noesen – Drury7:28
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas16:51
xG 0.81–0.74 (52%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Fast – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi12:21
xG 0.85–0.98 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Stepan – Poturalski – Drury4:00
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Bear12:58
xG 0.99–0.67 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo16:36
xG 0.82–0.71 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce17:30
xG 0.60–1.08 (36%)attempts 19–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).