Thu, Dec 16, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 13 | 112 | 226 |
| NSH | 110 | 217 | 28 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:23NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 7:20NSHTanner JeannotPPAssists: Colton Sissons, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:57COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 16:48NSHFilip ForsbergGWGUnassisted · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 9:12COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 12:19NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Colton Sissons, Tanner Jeannot · Snap, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 18:52NSHMattias EkholmENAssists: Alexandre Carrier · Slap, 0.42 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:24NSHTanner Jeannot: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:59COLErik Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:03COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:52COLJordan Gross: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:45NSHAlexandre Carrier: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:30NSHYakov Trenin: Interference2 min
- P3 1:34COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:09NSHLuke Kunin: Holding2 min
- P3 11:55COLJordan Gross: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Kadri – Maltsev – O'Connor2:45
xG 0.05–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen7:33
xG 0.02–0.48 (4%)attempts 1–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Gross3:33
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barron2:38
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Girard – Barron4:47
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestForsberg – Sissons – Jeannot12:55
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Trenin – Olivier – Glass9:31
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Novak – Kunin – Tolvanen9:15
xG 0.16–0.57 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro12:37
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Carrier9:58
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Myers4:12
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).