Thu, Dec 16, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Buffalo Sabres 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 021 | 16 | 111 | 02 | 1 | 340 |
| MIN | 16 | 113 | 010 | 03 | 0 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:11MINJon MerrillAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Ryan Hartman · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 8:05BUFDylan CozensAssists: Henri Jokiharju · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:04MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 12:03BUFMark PysykAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. BUF Victor Olofsson stopped
- 3. MIN Kevin Fiala stopped
- 4. BUF Kyle Okposo stopped
- 5. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 6. BUF Tage Thompson scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:25MINFrederick Gaudreau: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:04MINDmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P2 8:25BUFRasmus Dahlin: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Murray – Cozens12:39
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Girgensons – Hayden9:02
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson12:20
xG 0.71–0.73 (49%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Asplund8:27
xG 0.23–0.48 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Butcher12:53
xG 1.04–0.48 (69%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Miller – Bryson14:15
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:22
xG 0.47–0.73 (39%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:00
xG 0.77–0.16 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:42
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm9:56
xG 0.20–0.44 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Rask – Gaudreau – Fiala9:08
xG 0.02–0.81 (3%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Brodin2:15
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Dumba2:44
xG 0.06–0.02 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon10:02
xG 0.44–0.48 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).