Fri, Dec 17, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vegas Golden Knights 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 112 | 04 | 110 | 04 | 1 | 330 |
| NYR | 09 | 211 | 02 | 07 | 0 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49VGKBrett HowdenAssists: William Carrier, Keegan Kolesar · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 0:17NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:25NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 14:44VGKDylan CoghlanAssists: Nicolas Hague, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VGK Nicolas Roy stopped
- 2. NYR Kaapo Kakko stopped
- 3. VGK Evgenii Dadonov stopped
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 5. VGK Jonathan Marchessault scored
- 6. NYR Ryan Strome stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:17NYRMika Zibanejad: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:54VGKNicolas Roy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:25VGKAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McKegg won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Howden7:11
xG 0.62–0.12 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Smith – Marchessault – Roy4:39
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Karlsson – Carrier4:03
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Janmark – Kolesar – Howden2:41
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague9:47
xG 1.00–0.22 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Theodore – Coghlan10:58
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore10:49
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko15:19
xG 0.89–0.57 (61%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Hunt – Gauthier8:31
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Strome – Chytil – Lafrenière10:00
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Rooney8:06
xG 0.11–0.35 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Fox – Lindgren20:27
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller18:32
xG 0.74–0.88 (46%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Nemeth – Hajek11:56
xG 0.17–0.66 (20%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).