Fri, Dec 17, 2021·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 015 | 16 | 11 | 331 |
| CHI | 16 | 06 | 17 | 00 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:56NSHTommy NovakPPAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:57CHIKirby DachAssists: MacKenzie Entwistle, Dominik Kubalik · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 11:33NSHColton SissonsPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Eeli Tolvanen · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 13:55CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Riley Stillman · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 0:58NSHTanner JeannotGWGAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:48NSHEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:32CHIConnor Murphy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:43CHISeth Jones: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:06NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:35NSHRocco Grimaldi: Interference2 min
- P2 5:14CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:43NSHPhilippe Myers: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:23CHIConnor Murphy: Holding2 min
- P3 10:15CHIErik Gustafsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:04NSHTanner Jeannot: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTrenin – Olivier – Glass6:51
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Novak – Kunin – Tolvanen7:35
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Forsberg – Sissons – Jeannot11:00
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Grimaldi – Sherwood – Smith6:49
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro2:07
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro12:27
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Josi – Benning2:37
xG 0.09–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Strome – DeBrincat9:51
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Hagel – Kurashev4:45
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Hagel2:25
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Entwistle – Dach5:54
xG 0.18–0.23 (45%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Jones8:44
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Jones – Stillman3:43
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Murphy – Jones8:01
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).