Fri, Dec 17, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 09 | 112 | 127 |
| STL | 09 | 212 | 213 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:35STLLogan BrownAssists: Colton Parayko, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 19:49STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 12:11DALJason RobertsonAssists: John Klingberg, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 15:37STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:17STLIvan BarbashevENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:36DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P2 8:53STLNiko Mikkola: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:22STLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:31STLDakota Joshua: Holding2 min
- P3 6:16DALAlexander Radulov: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 14:25DALLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Benn – Robertson3:10
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Radulov – Glendening – Raffl4:15
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Radulov – Faksa – Raffl2:44
xG 0.07–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson6:33
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Klingberg15:32
xG 1.09–0.39 (74%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Hakanpää – Harley9:20
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Harley2:45
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Saad – Brown9:49
xG 0.90–0.25 (79%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Peca – Joshua – Toropchenko9:26
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Walker11:07
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Barbashev8:16
xG 0.50–0.78 (39%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Mikkola18:14
xG 1.04–0.64 (62%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug12:16
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Faulk – Mikkola2:23
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).