Sat, Dec 18, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 214 | 110 | 00 | 331 |
| PHI | 214 | 016 | 16 | 12 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Oskar Lindblom · Snap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 7:32PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 2:09OTTTim StützleAssists: Alex Formenton, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 3:22OTTAlex FormentonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 13:43OTTArtem ZubAssists: Dylan Gambrell, Zachary Sanford · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 14:35PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 1:35PHITravis SanheimGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:40PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:40OTTAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:42OTTDrake Batherson: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:59PHIJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:38OTTDillon Heatherington: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:38PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:45OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Watson – Sanford – Gambrell4:49
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Paul6:03
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Watson – Paul – Gambrell4:23
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Formenton – Stützle11:30
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Bernard-Docker16:18
xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Heatherington – Mete3:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Holden – Zub13:40
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Atkinson – Lindblom11:54
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Farabee13:59
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Brown – MacEwen – Cates4:59
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Laughton8:53
xG 0.04–0.39 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Braun – Provorov18:09
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim18:37
xG 0.61–0.64 (49%)attempts 23–20goals 1–2
- Yandle – Connauton10:13
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).