Sat, Dec 18, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Los Angeles Kings 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 013 | 113 | 07 | 133 |
| CAR | 211 | 210 | 112 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Brady Skjei, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 1:36CARJesper FastPPGWGAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Andrew Poturalski · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 2:38CARBrett PesceAssists: Josh Leivo, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 9:36CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 15:33LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Tobias Bjornfot · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 14:29CARJack DruryAssists: Derek Stepan, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:37LAKBrendan Lemieux: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P1 7:13CARBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P1 10:34LAKSean Durzi: Interference2 min
- P2 0:13LAKViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:10CARBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P2 9:05LAKBlake Lizotte: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:22CARNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:12LAKPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Kempe9:44
xG 0.95–0.05 (95%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev9:25
xG 1.06–0.39 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – Moore – Kupari6:31
xG 0.01–0.45 (2%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Danault – Arvidsson – Iafallo8:11
xG 0.37–1.55 (19%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWolanin – Anderson11:26
xG 0.98–0.22 (81%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Durzi – Bjornfot14:40
xG 1.13–0.54 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Maatta – Roy16:34
xG 0.70–2.35 (23%)attempts 13–29goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Trocheck – Noesen6:44
xG 1.25–0.17 (88%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Leivo – Drury8:06
xG 0.58–0.27 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Leivo – Poturalski – Smith4:18
xG 0.48–0.17 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Fast – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi8:11
xG 0.69–0.42 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:08
xG 1.75–1.01 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Skjei – Slavin2:06
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Bear12:25
xG 0.62–0.78 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).