Fri, Feb 18, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 6, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 113 | 314 | 636 |
| MIN | 19 | 012 | 15 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:07MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 10:02FLAMason MarchmentUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:29FLAMason MarchmentAssists: Anton Lundell, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 8:38FLAAnthony DuclairGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 1:41FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Anthony Duclair, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 9:42MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 13:18FLACarter VerhaegheENAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–2
- P3 14:33FLAMason MarchmentENAssists: Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.71 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:23FLALucas Carlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:37FLARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:29MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:25FLACarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:15FLARyan Lomberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:23MINMatt Boldy: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:28MINDmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:32FLACarter Verhaeghe: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Lomberg – Luostarinen7:12
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Huberdeau – Bennett7:21
xG 0.38–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Marchment – Lundell9:10
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov10:46
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Forsling14:14
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Weegar – Ekblad11:58
xG 0.59–0.37 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Montour – Carlsson11:30
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Duhaime – Dewar – Sturm6:38
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:28
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy11:45
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:40
xG 0.16–0.99 (14%)attempts 8–24goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Benn2:08
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Merrill11:24
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Brodin3:57
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).