Sat, Feb 12, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 224 | 017 | 253 |
| VAN | 211 | 17 | 06 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:00VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 12:46TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 15:41TOROndrej KasePPAssists: Jason Spezza, Rasmus Sandin · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 18:30VANJuho LammikkoGWGAssists: Alex Chiasson, Tyler Motte · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:42VANVasily Podkolzin: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:01TORPierre Engvall: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:55TORTJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P2 6:51TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
- P2 12:21VANBo Horvat: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:23VANLuke Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:41TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:38TORJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander8:10
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews12:03
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Kase – Kampf – Mikheyev6:40
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Mikheyev2:28
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl13:31
xG 1.09–0.23 (83%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Liljegren – Sandin10:23
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly16:50
xG 0.95–0.91 (51%)attempts 24–16goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Chiasson – Motte – Lammikko4:45
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Pearson – Dickinson – Garland9:57
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Hoglander – Podkolzin7:03
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Boeser13:34
xG 0.57–1.45 (28%)attempts 11–27goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Hamonic4:05
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson15:24
xG 0.68–0.99 (41%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Burroughs11:47
xG 0.11–0.75 (13%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).