Sun, Dec 19, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 14 | 19 | 19 | 322 |
| NJD | 06 | 16 | 17 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19PITTeddy BluegerSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.39 xG1–0
- P2 1:03PITDanton HeinenAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 2:20NJDJanne KuokkanenAssists: Ty Smith, Yegor Sharangovich · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 9:31PITMike MathesonGWGAssists: Dominik Simon, Chad Ruhwedel · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 11:12NJDNathan BastianPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Pavel Zacha · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:02PITDominik Simon: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:31PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:01PITSam Lafferty: Butt ending double minor4 min
- P2 7:01NJDMason Geertsen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:15NJDJimmy Vesey: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:53NJDMichael McLeod: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:16PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:41NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:41PITJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:35PITMike Matheson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese6:07
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Blueger – Kapanen – Aston-Reese2:44
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Heinen – Rodrigues4:31
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Kapanen – Rodrigues10:14
xG 0.16–0.06 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino10:48
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel7:15
xG 0.78–0.31 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin13:10
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Kuokkanen – Sharangovich2:08
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Vesey – McLeod – Kuokkanen2:24
xG 0.01–0.00 (58%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Vesey – Bastian – McLeod9:59
xG 0.06–0.26 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Bratt – Studenic – Mercer7:59
xG 0.47–0.76 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Severson – Siegenthaler19:01
xG 0.21–0.72 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Bahl12:40
xG 0.41–1.00 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).