Sun, Dec 19, 2021·UBS Arena, Elmont
Vegas Golden Knights 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 112 | 010 | 211 | 01 | 2 | 434 |
| NYI | 17 | 09 | 29 | 07 | 0 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:56VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 11:08NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Oliver Wahlstrom · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 5:46VGKShea TheodorePPAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 14:19NYIKieffer BellowsAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 17:40NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Oliver Wahlstrom, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 19:12VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. VGK Shea Theodore scored
- 2. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 3. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 4. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom stopped
- 5. VGK Nicolas Roy scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:57VGKReilly Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:16VGKMax Pacioretty: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:16NYIKieffer Bellows: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:34NYIZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:24VGKWilliam Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:22VGKMichael Amadio: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:59
xG 0.88–0.39 (69%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Janmark – Kolesar – Roy7:11
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Carrier – Amadio – Howden8:12
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Pacioretty – Stephenson10:30
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Theodore7:51
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud16:00
xG 0.42–0.30 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague13:27
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston13:16
xG 0.39–0.32 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Parise – Czarnik – Bellows7:09
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier15:01
xG 0.06–0.32 (16%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Wahlstrom9:59
xG 0.51–1.14 (31%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Greene3:12
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Greene – Aho7:27
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Chara – Dobson11:10
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).