Sun, Dec 19, 2021·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 111 | 18 | 228 |
| WPG | 011 | 212 | 211 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:40WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 13:47STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 16:47WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 4:40WPGPaul StastnyGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 14:28STLNiko MikkolaSHAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Ivan Barbashev · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 14:44WPGPaul StastnyPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Adam Lowry · Snap, 0.24 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:36WPGNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:36STLDakota Joshua: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:11STLLogan Brown: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:15STLNiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:53WPGKristian Vesalainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:24WPGNathan Beaulieu: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:22WPGDominic Toninato: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:36STLJordan Binnington: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Saad – Brown11:22
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Bozak – Saad – Brown2:01
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bozak – Peca – Toropchenko2:11
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Walker – Joshua – Toropchenko2:09
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Scandella5:14
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Parayko – Mikkola14:11
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Bortuzzo – Perunovich2:51
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Dubois – Vesalainen9:58
xG 1.36–0.14 (91%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Stastny – Scheifele – Ehlers9:38
xG 0.85–0.49 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 3–0
- Lowry – Copp – Harkins2:07
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Suess – Harkins – Reichel2:34
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk16:04
xG 1.53–1.04 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:13
xG 0.78–0.44 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Morrissey – Pionk2:52
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).