Wed, Feb 23, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 110 | 210 | 531 |
| DET | 07 | 113 | 114 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Cale Makar, Darren Helm · Snap, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 11:47COLTyson JostAssists: Logan O'Connor, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 11:35DETFilip ZadinaAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 18:19COLNazem KadriGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 2:11COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Alex Newhook · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 9:38DETRobby FabbriPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 19:21COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.77 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:30DETRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:28COLTyson Jost: Interference2 min
- P1 14:28DETFilip Zadina: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:20COLKurtis MacDermid: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:36COLMikko Rantanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:13DETAdam Erne: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:59DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:14COLValeri Nichushkin: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Rantanen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJost – O'Connor – Newhook6:50
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Helm – MacDermid – Aube-Kubel4:48
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Burakovsky – Rantanen11:49
xG 0.34–0.48 (41%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Kadri – Compher – Nichushkin7:23
xG 0.12–0.77 (13%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:28
xG 1.02–0.25 (80%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Toews – Girard2:31
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Johnson – Murray10:01
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen8:07
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond5:05
xG 0.38–0.09 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Veleno6:26
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter6:12
xG 0.16–0.37 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Seider12:59
xG 0.81–0.46 (64%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Lindstrom10:47
xG 0.59–0.46 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Staal – Hronek12:46
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).