Sun, Feb 20, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Islanders 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 15 | 06 | 03 | 2 | 327 |
| NYI | 010 | 112 | 19 | 01 | 1 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:01MTLJeff PetryAssists: Brett Kulak, Ryan Poehling · Deflected, 0.00 xG1–0
- P2 1:29NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Zach Parise, Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 18:49MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 17:03NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kieffer Bellows, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYI Anthony Beauvillier scored
- 2. MTL Cole Caufield scored
- 3. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 4. MTL Rem Pitlick scored
- 5. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:38NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:17MTLJosh Anderson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:36MTLLaurent Dauphin: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00MTLJake Evans: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:07MTLKale Clague: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:50NYISebastian Aho: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Suzuki – Caufield14:15
xG 0.66–0.15 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Lehkonen – Pezzetta – Poehling7:24
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Dauphin8:53
xG 0.07–0.30 (18%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Byron – Evans – Pitlick9:52
xG 0.30–1.14 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Romanov17:03
xG 0.80–0.75 (51%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Wideman – Clague11:43
xG 0.20–0.38 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak17:16
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Bailey – Pageau10:25
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Nelson – Beauvillier – Bellows11:35
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Barzal10:08
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:23
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson10:06
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Pulock – Aho11:32
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Pelech12:26
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).