Skip to content
Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 20, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Minnesota Wild 4, Dallas Stars 7

Away

Minnesota Wild

4

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.

DAL winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN271719423
DAL3911139729

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:31DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:24DALEsa LindellSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P1 5:25MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P1 15:42MINKevin FialaAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P1 16:43DALTyler SeguinAssists: Denis Gurianov, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
  6. P2 8:02DALRoope HintzPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
  7. P2 17:37MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
  8. P3 2:06DALJacob PetersonGWGAssists: Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
  9. P3 3:06DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–6
  10. P3 15:06MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Ryan Hartman, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–6
  11. P3 18:28DALJamie BennENAssists: Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.56 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 2:42DALDenis Gurianov: Interference2 min
  2. P1 11:54DALJason Robertson: Interference2 min
  3. P1 19:23MINJon Merrill: Interference2 min
  4. P2 7:18MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 9:25MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 9:25DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 9:58MINRyan Hartman: Cross checking2 min
  8. P2 9:58MINRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
  9. P3 14:17DALAlexander Radulov: Cross checking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
48% to win52% to win
← MIN attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINDAL
23Shots on goal29
1.9Expected goals3.9
47Shot attempts53
22Faceoffs won30
3Power plays4
10Penalty minutes8
20Hits23
12Blocked shots15
6Giveaways6
1Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Minnesota Wild

Forward lines

  1. bestFoligno – Rask – Fiala4:08

    xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  2. Rask – Pitlick – Sturm3:31

    xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1

  3. Foligno – Fiala – Eriksson Ek4:29

    xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  4. Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov13:28

    xG 0.39–0.49 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 2–1

Defence pairs

  1. Benn – Kulikov8:41

    xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1

  2. Goligoski – Merrill12:26

    xG 0.54–0.60 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1

  3. Merrill – Dumba2:24

    xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson7:31

    xG 0.98–0.24 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0

  2. Benn – Seguin – Gurianov6:40

    xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  3. Glendening – Faksa – Raffl10:38

    xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 1–2

  4. Radulov – Tufte – Peterson3:20

    xG 0.01–0.09 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHakanpää – Harley9:46

    xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1

  2. Lindell – Heiskanen12:46

    xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–10goals 2–1

  3. Suter – Klingberg12:46

    xG 0.13–0.48 (22%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.9 xGMIN 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #170 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.61 · 11 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.

DAL winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).