Tue, Feb 15, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 114 | 28 | 214 | 536 |
| OTT | 17 | 16 | 07 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:20STLBrayden SchennAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 16:27OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Erik Brannstrom · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:15STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 5:34STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 6:53OTTParker KellyAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Clark Bishop · Deflected, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 10:00STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Klim Kostin, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.54 xG4–2
- P3 17:49STLVladimir TarasenkoENAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.76 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:09STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 1:39OTTNick Paul: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:25OTTAlex Formenton: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:16OTTNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:36STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:20STLIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:06STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:05OTTNick Paul: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas11:45
xG 0.95–0.23 (81%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Perron – Saad – Barbashev8:04
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joshua – Kostin7:21
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad2:10
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug17:14
xG 2.07–0.24 (90%)attempts 28–8goals 2–0
- Parayko – Mikkola15:48
xG 0.61–0.38 (62%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Walman10:33
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Paul – Tkachuk10:02
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Ennis – Bishop – Gambrell3:49
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tierney – Sanford – Kelly2:42
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Sanford4:09
xG 0.08–0.21 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Zub16:22
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 19–11goals 0–2
- Mete – Zaitsev13:35
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Brown – Brannstrom12:29
xG 0.10–1.81 (5%)attempts 5–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).