Thu, Feb 17, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 16 | 311 | 525 |
| PHI | 011 | 212 | 110 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:35WSHMichal KempnyAssists: Nic Dowd, Garnet Hathaway · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 8:54PHIGerry MayhewPPAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Isaac Ratcliffe · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:49WSHJoe SnivelyPPAssists: Conor Sheary, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 19:01PHITravis SanheimAssists: Travis Konecny, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 16:09PHIGerry MayhewAssists: Travis Sanheim, Justin Braun · Snap, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 17:03WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: John Carlson, Carl Hagelin · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 18:48WSHGarnet HathawayGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 19:11WSHJohn CarlsonENAssists: Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:41WSHMichal Kempny: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:37PHIScott Laughton: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:37WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 7:37WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Instigator2 min
- P2 7:37WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 9:57PHIIsaac Ratcliffe: Interference2 min
- P2 11:12PHICam Atkinson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 7:49WSHMichal Kempny: Holding2 min
- P3 8:10WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:30PHIScott Laughton: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:02PHIKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:02WSHNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary11:19
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Dowd – Wilson – Snively2:02
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway10:17
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Eller – Leason – McMichael7:46
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Kempny9:53
xG 0.67–0.04 (95%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen12:37
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Jensen – Kempny2:46
xG 0.01–0.10 (8%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Konecny11:23
xG 0.64–0.51 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Bunnaman – MacEwen – Ratcliffe7:41
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Atkinson – Mayhew6:42
xG 0.03–0.04 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Willman – Mayhew – Frost3:34
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Sanheim16:59
xG 0.79–0.36 (69%)attempts 19–8goals 2–1
- Braun – Provorov16:41
xG 0.76–0.88 (46%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
- Yandle – Connauton9:22
xG 0.01–0.42 (3%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).