Thu, Feb 24, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 315 | 26 | 115 | 636 |
| PIT | 013 | 114 | 011 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 5:47NJDJesper BrattGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 6:44NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 9:24NJDDawson MercerAssists: Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–0
- P2 11:13PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.21 xG4–1
- P2 13:37NJDDamon SeversonPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 9:30NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.11 xG6–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:32PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:54NJDJesper Boqvist: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:18NJDNathan Bastian: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:59PITBrock McGinn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:08PITChad Ruhwedel: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:08NJDAndreas Johnsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:45NJDTomas Tatar: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:41NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:29PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:17PITJeff Carter: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Bratt – Hischier9:23
xG 0.57–0.44 (57%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Vesey – Bastian – McLeod8:00
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Hughes – Mercer7:52
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Tatar – Johnsson – Boqvist9:42
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler11:10
xG 0.78–0.45 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Subban – Smith12:58
xG 0.49–0.46 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Severson – Graves11:35
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel12:44
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Carter – Malkin – Heinen3:58
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Malkin – Kapanen – Heinen5:40
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – Kapanen – Rodrigues3:43
xG 0.23–0.18 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin13:08
xG 0.59–0.26 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel12:00
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Letang – Matheson2:32
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).