Sun, Feb 20, 2022·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 13 | 111 | 311 | 525 |
| CHI | 111 | 08 | 15 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:33FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Sam Reinhart, Mason Marchment · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 19:28CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 7:26FLABrandon MontourAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 0:50FLAMacKenzie WeegarGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 12:38CHICaleb JonesAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:12FLAAleksander BarkovENAssists: Gustav Forsling, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–2
- P3 18:51FLAAnton LundellENAssists: Noel Acciari, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:47FLAMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:51FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:51CHIBrandon Hagel: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:59FLAMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:11CHICalvin de Haan: Interference2 min
- P2 19:11CHICalvin de Haan: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:11FLASam Reinhart: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:31FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P3 10:38FLARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dach won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Acciari4:52
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen7:32
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Barkov5:46
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov4:22
xG 0.23–0.10 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad15:05
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Gudas – Forsling12:30
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling2:28
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – Borgstrom – Entwistle9:04
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat5:59
xG 0.25–0.24 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Strome – DeBrincat6:20
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Kurashev – Reichel2:19
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Murphy2:27
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- de Haan – Jones9:57
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 11–6goals 0–2
- Jones – Regula2:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).