Wed, Feb 16, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 2, Calgary Flames 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 17 | 19 | 228 |
| CGY | 212 | 212 | 219 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34CGYDillon DubeAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:55CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 1:35ANASonny MilanoAssists: Isac Lundeström, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 3:43CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 4:24CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 4:26ANAIsac LundeströmSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 16:48CGYJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–5
- P3 17:51CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Dillon Dube, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:34CGYElias Lindholm: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 6:00CGYAdam Ruzicka: Elbowing2 min
- P1 11:50ANAAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:12CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:12ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:04CGYJacob Markstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:33ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:58CGYSean Monahan: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:47ANASimon Benoit: Interference2 min
- P3 3:04ANATrevor Zegras: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:47ANASam Carrick: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Rakell – Lundeström2:15
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Rakell – Milano – Zegras9:12
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Carrick – Robinson4:57
xG 0.00–0.19 (2%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Grant – Silfverberg – Lundeström5:18
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Benoit9:44
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:12
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Fowler8:45
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Coleman – Ruzicka2:29
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:02
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ruzicka5:15
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane6:00
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson13:31
xG 1.24–0.31 (80%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov11:59
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Tanev – Kylington11:46
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).