Wed, Apr 27, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 4, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 15 | 212 | 423 |
| NYR | 010 | 110 | 27 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:45MTLRyan PoehlingAssists: Michael Pezzetta, William Lagesson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:14NYRRyan ReavesAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Kevin Rooney · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:51MTLJeff PetryAssists: Christian Dvorak, Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 4:15NYRFrank VatranoAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 12:08MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Nick Suzuki, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 15:41NYRRyan StromeSHAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 19:29MTLJeff PetryGWGAssists: Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:25MTLJordan Harris: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:05MTLNick Suzuki: Interference2 min
- P2 5:12NYRJulien Gauthier: Interference2 min
- P3 8:22MTLJoel Edmundson: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:27NYRKevin Rooney: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rooney won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Evans – Pitlick9:46
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Suzuki – Caufield12:39
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Pitlick – Anderson – Dvorak11:21
xG 0.45–0.29 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Dauphin – Pezzetta – Poehling9:25
xG 0.87–0.87 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Romanov15:00
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Lagesson – Harris13:58
xG 0.71–0.64 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Petry – Edmundson16:52
xG 0.71–0.84 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Goodrow – Vatrano12:02
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 6–11goals 1–2
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière10:53
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Hunt – Rooney12:29
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- McKegg – Brodzinski – Gauthier9:06
xG 0.77–0.84 (48%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Miller12:22
xG 0.61–0.16 (80%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Hajek – Jones16:52
xG 0.85–1.40 (38%)attempts 12–23goals 0–2
- Nemeth – Schneider13:41
xG 0.18–0.78 (19%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).