Fri, Feb 11, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 3, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 012 | 29 | 110 | 03 | 334 |
| DAL | 07 | 213 | 113 | 12 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:50WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Nate Schmidt, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 10:46DALJacob PetersonAssists: Alexander Radulov · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 11:42DALTyler SeguinAssists: Denis Gurianov, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 16:21WPGJansen HarkinsAssists: Cole Perfetti, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 12:47DALJamie BennAssists: Denis Gurianov, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 19:28WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Neal Pionk, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 3:10DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:02WPGBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:28DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:27WPGDylan DeMelo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:15WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:21DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:21WPGBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:35WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToninato – Harkins – Svechnikov3:13
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Connor – Harkins – Dubois6:04
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Lowry – Dubois – Reichel5:03
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Copp – Connor – Perfetti6:45
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Schmidt12:24
xG 0.71–0.46 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Pionk – Heinola7:37
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Pionk2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Kero – Peterson5:54
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov10:35
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Glendening – Raffl – Kiviranta8:14
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:02
xG 0.23–0.55 (29%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Hanley8:51
xG 0.29–0.11 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Lindell13:27
xG 0.62–0.50 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Heiskanen19:36
xG 0.84–0.76 (52%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).