Tue, Feb 15, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 5, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 112 | 49 | 529 |
| LAK | 111 | 08 | 113 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:00LAKArthur KaliyevAssists: Brendan Lemieux · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 17:45EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–1
- P3 7:44EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Warren Foegele, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 11:42LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 15:14EDMKailer YamamotoGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 18:35EDMZach HymanENAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–2
- P3 19:42EDMEvander KaneENAssists: Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.69 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:19LAKOlli Maatta: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:31EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P1 18:22EDMWilliam Lagesson: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:10LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:43EDMDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:38EDMConnor McDavid: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:38LAKTrevor Moore: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:54EDMEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:52LAKArthur Kaliyev: Holding2 min
- P3 8:27EDMEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi6:09
xG 1.13–0.24 (83%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Ryan5:11
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto5:43
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse10:33
xG 1.27–0.33 (79%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Bouchard – Broberg5:13
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Niemelainen – Bouchard5:06
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Iafallo9:05
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev8:10
xG 0.30–0.29 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Brown – Athanasiou – Byfield7:13
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore9:20
xG 0.54–1.31 (29%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Durzi – Bjornfot7:25
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Maatta – Roy10:30
xG 0.37–0.76 (33%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Doughty – Anderson11:57
xG 0.54–1.21 (31%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).