Mon, Feb 21, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Colorado Avalanche 1, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 111 | 09 | 129 |
| BOS | 121 | 315 | 19 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:30BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Charlie McAvoy · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 8:01BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 12:58COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:35BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Taylor Hall, Brandon Carlo · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 15:42BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Curtis Lazar, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 4:04BOSCharlie CoylePPAssists: David Pastrnak, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:58COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:12COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:45BOSTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:27COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:12BOSDerek Forbort: Holding2 min
- P3 11:07BOSJack Studnicka: Holding2 min
- P3 19:22BOSDerek Forbort: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Compher – O'Connor3:24
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Aube-Kubel – O'Connor2:40
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Compher – Jost – Newhook3:11
xG 0.01–0.13 (5%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:44
xG 0.49–0.82 (38%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar9:10
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Johnson2:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard2:25
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Hall – Pastrnak10:30
xG 1.07–0.13 (89%)attempts 11–7goals 3–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic12:19
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Foligno – Haula – Studnicka10:04
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Lazar – Nosek – DeBrusk10:43
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo14:40
xG 1.06–0.20 (84%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Forbort – Clifton12:19
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Reilly – McAvoy16:35
xG 1.01–0.60 (63%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).