Tue, Feb 22, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 6, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 113 | 213 | 37 | 633 |
| FLA | 114 | 220 | 114 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 12:06NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Alexandre Carrier · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 1:54FLARadko GudasAssists: Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 9:42FLAAaron EkbladUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 10:44NSHRoman JosiAssists: Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 11:21NSHYakov TreninAssists: Dante Fabbro · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 8:11FLASam BennettAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 10:41NSHTanner JeannotSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 14:29NSHMikael GranlundPPGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–4
- P3 18:28NSHTanner JeannotENUnassisted · Slap, 0.66 xG6–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:45NSHMikael Granlund: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:24FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference2 min
- P2 14:30FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:46NSHPhilip Tomasino: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:51NSHAlexandre Carrier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:12FLASam Bennett: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- McCarron – Luff – Tolvanen6:59
xG 0.32–0.45 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tomasino8:41
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:53
xG 0.60–1.00 (38%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg12:20
xG 0.08–0.73 (10%)attempts 4–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro16:22
xG 1.23–0.55 (69%)attempts 21–18goals 2–1
- Benning – Carrier2:20
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Carrier – Myers10:23
xG 0.38–0.90 (30%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Marchment – Lundell8:24
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 12–2goals 2–0
- Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen7:06
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Mamin10:07
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett10:48
xG 0.77–0.82 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad17:07
xG 1.27–0.06 (95%)attempts 28–5goals 2–0
- Gudas – Forsling12:45
xG 1.00–0.69 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Montour – Forsling4:38
xG 0.03–0.06 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).