Thu, Apr 7, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 7, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 38 | 17 | 311 | 726 |
| NJD | 112 | 115 | 210 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Rem Pitlick, Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:41MTLJake EvansAssists: Corey Schueneman, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 7:11NJDTomas TatarAssists: Dawson Mercer, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 13:44MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 15:00NJDA.J. GreerAssists: Michael McLeod, Ryan Graves · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 16:20MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Chris Wideman, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 1:11MTLChris WidemanGWGAssists: Kale Clague, Christian Dvorak · Slap, 0.01 xG5–2
- P3 1:26MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Chris Wideman, Kale Clague · Snap, 0.28 xG6–2
- P3 1:53NJDTy SmithAssists: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.04 xG6–3
- P3 10:59NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.04 xG6–4
- P3 13:17MTLKale ClagueAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.07 xG7–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 6:51MTLKale Clague: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:46MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Armia – Dvorak10:29
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 3–1
- Hoffman – Anderson – Evans13:06
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Suzuki – Caufield12:57
xG 0.49–0.62 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Pitlick – Poehling – Ylonen8:15
xG 0.09–0.44 (17%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Clague15:59
xG 0.66–0.51 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 3–1
- Edmundson – Romanov18:03
xG 0.70–0.74 (49%)attempts 20–17goals 2–1
- Savard – Schueneman17:23
xG 0.86–1.03 (45%)attempts 11–24goals 1–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Greer – McLeod8:57
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 1–1
- Tatar – Zacha – Mercer11:12
xG 0.40–0.64 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 1–4
- Bratt – Hischier – Sharangovich14:30
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Kuokkanen – Boqvist – Zetterlund11:08
xG 0.50–0.79 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Siegenthaler9:17
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Graves12:53
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
- Subban – Severson2:10
xG 0.07–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).