Thu, Apr 28, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Washington Capitals 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 013 | 17 | 127 |
| NYI | 26 | 010 | 310 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:48NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 15:34NYIAnders LeePPGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 3:44NYIJean-Gabriel PageauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 6:23NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Robin Salo · Snap, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 13:37NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 19:18WSHAxel Jonsson-FjallbyAssists: Anthony Mantha, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:10WSHAxel Jonsson-Fjallby: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:22NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:26WSHJohn Carlson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 15:11WSHJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:16NYIZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:21WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 19:39NYIAdam Pelech: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:39NYIAdam Pelech: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:49WSHGarnet Hathaway: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:25NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:25NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:25NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Johansson – Wilson7:29
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Dowd – Larsson – Hathaway7:40
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Mantha – Jonsson-Fjallby7:39
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Sheary8:12
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Orlov5:29
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen5:56
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:17
xG 0.56–0.45 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Martin – Cizikas – Wahlstrom4:46
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Barzal7:43
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Bellows9:31
xG 0.13–0.30 (31%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Beauvillier9:39
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Salo7:11
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Chara – Aho2:07
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Chara – Salo2:55
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).