Tue, Feb 15, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 313 | 07 | 00 | 427 |
| PIT | 29 | 018 | 26 | 11 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:47PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Cam Atkinson, Oskar Lindblom · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 14:09PITDominik SimonAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Brian Boyle · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 16:34PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 0:57PHIScott LaughtonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 10:43PHINick SeelerAssists: Travis Konecny, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 17:09PHIJustin BraunAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 12:36PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–3
- P3 12:54PITChad RuhwedelAssists: Danton Heinen, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- OT 0:31PITKris LetangGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:51PHIJustin Braun: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:44PHIConnor Bunnaman: Holding2 min
- P2 11:49PITMike Matheson: Interference2 min
- P3 2:16PHIIsaac Ratcliffe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:21PITJake Guentzel: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:00PHIIsaac Ratcliffe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:13PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Konecny11:57
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 3–0
- Giroux – Atkinson – Lindblom12:41
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Willman – Ratcliffe – Frost6:55
xG 0.06–0.26 (17%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Braun – Provorov20:36
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Yandle – Connauton7:07
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Seeler – Sanheim18:00
xG 0.61–0.88 (41%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – McGinn – Kapanen8:44
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Simon – Aston-Reese5:21
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kapanen – Rodrigues2:30
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Heinen – Rodrigues8:45
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin16:54
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel13:02
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Pettersson – Marino10:52
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).