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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 18, 2022·United Center, Chicago

Dallas Stars 1, Chicago Blackhawks 0 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.

CHI winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DAL090909022129
CHI01101107051034

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. No goals in regulation or overtime.

Shootout

  1. 1. CHI Alex DeBrincat scored
  2. 2. DAL Jason Robertson scored
  3. 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
  4. 4. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
  5. 5. CHI Lukas Reichel stopped
  6. 6. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
  7. 7. CHI Philipp Kurashev stopped
  8. 8. DAL Alexander Radulov stopped
  9. 9. CHI Dominik Kubalik stopped
  10. 10. DAL Roope Hintz stopped
  11. 11. CHI Jake McCabe stopped
  12. 12. DAL Jacob Peterson scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 5:37CHIBrandon Hagel: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 13:26DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 1:53CHICalvin de Haan: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 13:12DALJani Hakanpää: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 12:25CHIJake McCabe: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
48% to win52% to win
← DAL attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Faksa
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALCHI
29Shots on goal34
2.1Expected goals2.6
50Shot attempts61
21Faceoffs won20
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
21Hits18
16Blocked shots13
7Giveaways9
6Takeaways10

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestRadulov – Glendening – Raffl2:03

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  2. Faksa – Peterson – Kiviranta2:39

    xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  3. Seguin – Gurianov – Peterson3:43

    xG 0.09–0.09 (49%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0

  4. Radulov – Peterson – Kiviranta3:51

    xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHakanpää – Harley7:21

    xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0

  2. Suter – Heiskanen17:17

    xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0

  3. Klingberg – Lindell14:51

    xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestKubalik – Strome – DeBrincat10:45

    xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 15–1goals 0–0

  2. Carpenter – Borgstrom – Entwistle5:12

    xG 0.02–0.01 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  3. Kane – Hagel – Reichel13:16

    xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0

  4. Lafferty – Kurashev – Dach8:45

    xG 0.26–0.51 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJones – Regula11:09

    xG 0.56–0.25 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0

  2. Jones – Jones2:33

    xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

  3. de Haan – Jones14:44

    xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 2.6 xGDAL 2.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 11/100 · #1180 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.92 · 0 goals in reachComeback index 45% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3OTEnd

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 59% of the time.

CHI winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).