Mon, Feb 14, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 4, Minnesota Wild 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 211 | 05 | 218 | 434 |
| MIN | 28 | 27 | 310 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:27DETDylan LarkinAssists: Moritz Seider · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 4:01DETGustav LindstromAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 5:29MINMatt BoldyAssists: Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 8:04MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 4:54MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 18:13MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 8:00MINJoel Eriksson EkPPGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 9:43DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 18:14DETSam GagnerAssists: Robby Fabbri, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.33 xG4–5
- P3 19:11MINKirill KaprizovENAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–6
- P3 19:45MINRyan HartmanAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–7
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:35MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:21DETMarc Staal: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:45MINJordan Greenway: Interference2 min
- P1 14:44DETNick Leddy: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:27MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:27DETTroy Stecher: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:27MINJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:27MINBrandon Duhaime: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:27DETMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:21DETLucas Raymond: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:51MINJon Merrill: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:55DETTroy Stecher: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:19MINDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:00MINKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Zadina – Raymond8:19
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Gagner – Smith – Smith2:27
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Erne – Rasmussen – Veleno3:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Gagner – Erne – Veleno2:41
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Seider2:19
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Leddy – Lindstrom13:36
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Staal – Stecher9:57
xG 0.02–0.20 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Fiala – Boldy10:29
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime5:47
xG 0.13–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:54
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Rask – Dewar – Sturm8:49
xG 0.04–0.07 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Merrill16:07
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin14:17
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Benn9:25
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).