Tue, Feb 15, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 3, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 110 | 112 | 111 | 333 |
| BUF | 112 | 217 | 312 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:53BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Casey Fitzgerald, Cody Eakin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:06NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 1:36BUFTage ThompsonSHAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 7:11NYIAnders LeeAssists: Zdeno Chara, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 19:59BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 9:56NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Anders Lee, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 17:05BUFVictor OlofssonGWGAssists: Peyton Krebs, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 18:55BUFHenri JokiharjuENAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–5
- P3 19:34BUFVictor OlofssonENAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.65 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:27BUFMark Jankowski: Interference2 min
- P2 9:03BUFDylan Cozens: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:01NYIZach Parise: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:00NYIZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal10:05
xG 1.05–0.34 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:36
xG 0.47–0.26 (65%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Beauvillier11:04
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Parise – Pageau – Wahlstrom8:17
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson14:33
xG 1.29–0.36 (78%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Pelech15:07
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:18
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Krebs – Cozens9:09
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:27
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Asplund9:47
xG 0.57–0.63 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Hayden – Bjork9:32
xG 0.10–0.96 (9%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Bryson15:05
xG 0.55–0.29 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin18:50
xG 0.77–0.86 (48%)attempts 26–12goals 1–1
- Fitzgerald – Samuelsson10:58
xG 0.23–1.43 (14%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).