Thu, Feb 17, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Detroit Red Wings 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 112 | 06 | 04 | 2 | 333 |
| NYR | 08 | 118 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:18DETTroy StecherAssists: Adam Erne · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 12:18NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 13:48DETDylan LarkinAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 11:51NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Lucas Raymond scored
- 2. NYR Mika Zibanejad scored
- 3. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 4. NYR Artemi Panarin stopped
- 5. DET Adam Erne stopped
- 6. NYR Adam Fox stopped
- 7. DET Tyler Bertuzzi stopped
- 8. NYR Alexis Lafrenière stopped
- 9. DET Sam Gagner stopped
- 10. NYR Ryan Strome stopped
- 11. DET Pius Suter scored
- 12. NYR Filip Chytil stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:51NYRBarclay Goodrow: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:11NYRJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:29DETGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:29NYRDryden Hunt: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:29NYRDryden Hunt: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:17DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suter won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Fabbri – Suter15:16
xG 0.49–0.28 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Fabbri2:01
xG 0.15–0.29 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Smith – Rasmussen3:54
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Larkin – Zadina – Raymond14:28
xG 0.63–0.99 (39%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Stecher11:16
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Leddy – Seider2:34
xG 0.05–0.04 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Leddy – Hronek4:06
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière15:51
xG 1.14–0.61 (65%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Strome – Goodrow – Panarin14:15
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Hunt – Gauthier – Chytil5:22
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Reaves – McKegg – Rooney9:37
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren17:25
xG 1.17–0.44 (73%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Jones – Schneider11:50
xG 0.63–0.25 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller19:36
xG 0.89–0.99 (47%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).