Wed, Feb 9, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 15 | 29 | 09 | 323 |
| DAL | 15 | 212 | 110 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:58DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: John Klingberg, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 14:41NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 16:18DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: John Klingberg, Esa Lindell · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 16:37NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 17:59DALRoope HintzAssists: Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 19:51NSHYakov TreninAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 3:24DALLuke GlendeningGWGAssists: Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:23DALJoe Pavelski: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:26DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:26NSHYakov Trenin: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:45NSHDante Fabbro: Holding2 min
- P1 9:35NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:46DALMiro Heiskanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:27NSHBen Harpur: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:55NSHMichael McCarron: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:27NSHFilip Forsberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:51DALDenis Gurianov: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 5:44NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:58DALMichael Raffl: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Tolvanen – Tomasino4:50
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg12:16
xG 0.73–0.84 (46%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:48
xG 0.54–0.65 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Johansen – Cousins – Kunin8:59
xG 0.09–0.40 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ekholm2:01
xG 0.52–0.15 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Harpur – Myers7:49
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Josi – Myers4:03
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Faksa – Raffl8:07
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov9:46
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:05
xG 0.44–0.29 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Radulov – Peterson – Kiviranta2:49
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell9:58
xG 0.61–0.13 (83%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Hanley6:56
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Hanley3:40
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).