Mon, Mar 7, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 011 | 111 | 128 |
| CGY | 08 | 29 | 112 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:27CGYTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 9:54CGYTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Adam Ruzicka, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 4:57EDMDevin ShoreAssists: Derek Ryan, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 17:07CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:38CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P1 14:35CGYNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:06EDMTyler Benson: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00EDMEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:22CGYElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:45EDMPhilip Broberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:40CGYChris Tanev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:39EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:53EDMRyan McLeod: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:09EDMTyler Benson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:02
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Yamamoto – McLeod2:59
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Malone – Sceviour – Benson3:52
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – McLeod5:14
xG 0.12–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Broberg13:38
xG 0.62–0.10 (87%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Nurse – Broberg2:24
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse13:12
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Mangiapane – Ruzicka7:20
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:39
xG 0.37–0.26 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Lucic – Monahan – Dube9:07
xG 0.19–0.33 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Lewis – Backlund – Coleman10:08
xG 0.02–0.55 (4%)attempts 2–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson12:38
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Tanev – Kylington13:20
xG 0.08–0.24 (26%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov11:39
xG 0.37–0.83 (31%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).