Wed, Feb 16, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 2, Vegas Golden Knights 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 09 | 28 | 225 |
| VGK | 010 | 09 | 010 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:41COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 15:45COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:12COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
- P1 7:23VGKJack Eichel: Interference2 min
- P2 0:27VGKJack Eichel: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:48COLDevon Toews: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:59VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:00
xG 0.79–0.33 (71%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin9:55
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Helm – O'Connor – Newhook3:18
xG 0.05–0.15 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Compher – Aube-Kubel – Jost5:19
xG 0.09–0.43 (17%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:11
xG 0.88–0.12 (88%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar5:02
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Johnson3:14
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault4:01
xG 0.25–0.08 (77%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Janmark – Roy2:50
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Pacioretty – Eichel11:42
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Carrier – Howden3:01
xG 0.01–0.01 (43%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hutton11:52
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Coghlan – Hague7:04
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore3:34
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).