Tue, Dec 28, 2021·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Los Angeles Kings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 313 | 210 | 14 | 627 |
| LAK | 16 | 113 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:53VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 10:19VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Ben Hutton, William Carrier · Slap, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 10:32LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 11:09VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 1:21VGKChandler StephensonPPGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy · Snap, 0.15 xG4–1
- P2 2:47VGKMattias JanmarkAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Chandler Stephenson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–1
- P2 15:30LAKTrevor MooreSHAssists: Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–2
- P3 1:55VGKJonathan MarchessaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG6–2
- P3 5:50LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Sean Durzi, Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.06 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:11LAKLias Andersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:40LAKSean Durzi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 4:15VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:17VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P2 9:41LAKLias Andersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:44LAKAlex Turcotte: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:30VGKWilliam Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P3 8:08VGKChandler Stephenson: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turcotte won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:39
xG 0.81–0.56 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy9:51
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Amadio – Brooks – Leschyshyn8:10
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Stephenson – Janmark10:46
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Whitecloud12:51
xG 0.90–0.45 (66%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Hague – Whitecloud3:59
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Coghlan – Hague5:55
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Moore – Turcotte9:06
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Iafallo10:38
xG 0.54–0.59 (48%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev9:11
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Anderson-Dolan – Andersson7:22
xG 0.08–0.41 (16%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Roy – Bjornfot2:16
xG 0.02–0.01 (60%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Wolanin – Roy10:59
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Durzi – Bjornfot14:35
xG 0.28–0.70 (29%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).