Wed, Dec 29, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 018 | 213 | 442 |
| BUF | 03 | 210 | 19 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43NJDDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:48NJDJesper BrattAssists: P.K. Subban, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 0:33BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 3:17BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 4:28NJDJack HughesAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Jesper Bratt · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 6:50NJDYegor SharangovichGWGAssists: Ty Smith, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 14:38BUFEthan ProwAssists: Victor Olofsson, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:01BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:56BUFBrett Murray: Instigator2 min
- P1 14:56BUFBrett Murray: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:56BUFBrett Murray: Misconduct10 min
- P1 14:56NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:03NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBratt – Sharangovich – Hughes11:26
xG 1.17–0.30 (80%)attempts 18–7goals 3–0
- Zacha – Hischier – Boqvist12:21
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 18–6goals 0–2
- Bastian – McLeod – Studenic10:06
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Kuokkanen – Mercer10:00
xG 0.09–0.35 (21%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Smith13:18
xG 1.19–0.21 (85%)attempts 21–8goals 3–0
- Hamilton – Graves12:21
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Severson – Siegenthaler16:43
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 22–11goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Olofsson – Asplund4:32
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Ruotsalainen6:32
xG 0.09–0.16 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork6:19
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka11:54
xG 0.50–0.64 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Prow6:55
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Fitzgerald – Dahlin2:35
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Butcher – Fitzgerald6:22
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).