Wed, Dec 29, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
New York Rangers 3, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 115 | 18 | 110 | 333 |
| FLA | 012 | 17 | 313 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:08NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Ryan Strome, Jacob Trouba · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:09FLAAnton LundellAssists: Gustav Forsling, Ryan Lomberg · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 12:43NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Artemi Panarin, Libor Hajek · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 5:56FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Mason Marchment · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 10:31FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Radko Gudas, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 14:40FLAAnthony DuclairGWGAssists: Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 19:15NYRChris KreiderAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:19FLASam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:20FLACarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:32NYRRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:12NYRLibor Hajek: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:12FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:39NYRLibor Hajek: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko9:12
xG 0.67–0.56 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Chytil – Lafrenière9:09
xG 0.02–0.27 (5%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Goodrow9:24
xG 0.34–0.78 (30%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Strome – Hunt – Panarin11:59
xG 0.48–1.24 (28%)attempts 10–20goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller13:00
xG 0.76–0.63 (55%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Lundkvist12:42
xG 0.44–1.01 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Fox – Hajek17:01
xG 0.59–1.36 (30%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen8:59
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Reinhart – Bennett7:54
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Marchment – Mamin – Lundell9:39
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov7:29
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Forsling12:56
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Montour – Carlsson9:37
xG 0.98–0.52 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad16:27
xG 0.65–0.91 (42%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).