Tue, Feb 15, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Dallas Stars 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 27 | 16 | 420 |
| COL | 014 | 116 | 017 | 147 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:24DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 4:26DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jani Hakanpää · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 5:12COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 12:39DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–1
- P3 18:37DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:58DALRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:41COLNazem Kadri: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:18DALJohn Klingberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:27COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:39COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 13:04DALTyler Seguin: Elbowing2 min
- P3 9:38DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Glendening – Raffl – Kiviranta9:25
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin2:02
xG 0.01–0.15 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:59
xG 0.56–0.78 (42%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Radulov – Kero – Peterson4:26
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klingberg – Lindell19:12
xG 0.68–0.90 (43%)attempts 12–24goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Harley6:58
xG 0.05–0.62 (8%)attempts 2–13goals 1–1
- Suter – Heiskanen17:34
xG 0.55–1.33 (29%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:42
xG 1.15–0.67 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin8:43
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Helm – Aube-Kubel – Jost4:43
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Compher – O'Connor – Newhook6:39
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard6:21
xG 0.87–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Toews2:42
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar13:53
xG 0.88–0.64 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).