Wed, Dec 29, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Seattle Kraken 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 05 | 110 | 11 | 322 |
| SEA | 112 | 011 | 19 | 04 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:44PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:46SEAYanni GourdePPAssists: Carson Soucy, Morgan Geekie · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 14:32SEAJeremy LauzonAssists: Adam Larsson, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 14:47PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Travis Sanheim, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 2:14PHIIvan ProvorovGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:29SEAJordan Eberle: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:08PHIGerry Mayhew: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:46PHIJustin Braun: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:43SEAMax McCormick: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:49PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:35SEAJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Atkinson8:12
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Mayhew – Frost3:29
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Willman – MacEwen7:31
xG 0.12–0.13 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Mayhew – Frost2:18
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov16:50
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim16:50
xG 0.32–0.43 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Yandle – Connauton10:29
xG 0.10–0.40 (20%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Blackwell – Gourde12:32
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- McCormick – Geekie – True4:25
xG 0.13–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Donskoi – Wennberg11:12
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – McCann12:07
xG 0.31–0.45 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Lauzon17:08
xG 0.60–0.26 (69%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Giordano – Oleksiak16:50
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Soucy – Borgen11:42
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).