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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 30, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise

Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Florida Panthers 9

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

9

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.

FLA winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL119110113342
FLA310317310937

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:10FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Brandon Montour, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:22FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–2
  3. P1 14:21FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Anton Lundell, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
  4. P1 15:31TBLZach BogosianAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P2 3:02FLAEetu LuostarinenGWGAssists: Radko Gudas, Ryan Lomberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P2 6:19TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ondrej Palat, Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
  7. P2 17:26FLAMaxim MaminAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–5
  8. P2 19:23FLAAnton LundellAssists: Frank Vatrano, MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–6
  9. P3 4:27TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–6
  10. P3 4:38FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–7
  11. P3 6:46FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.04 xG3–8
  12. P3 12:31FLAAleksander BarkovSHAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.18 xG3–9
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 10:34TBLRoss Colton: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  2. P1 10:34TBLRoss Colton: Misconduct10 min
  3. P1 17:16FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P1 17:16TBLAlex Killorn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  5. P1 18:27FLAAleksander Barkov: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 10:11TBLPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 2:44FLALucas Carlsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 12:20FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking double minor4 min
  9. P3 15:43TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
  10. P3 18:54FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 18:54FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 18:54FLARyan Lomberg: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 18:54TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 18:54TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 18:54TBLCorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 18:54TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
48% to win52% to win
← TBL attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Point
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLFLA
42Shots on goal37
3.2Expected goals3.7
63Shot attempts54
38Faceoffs won30
4Power plays3
42Penalty minutes24
29Hits40
13Blocked shots11
6Giveaways10
11Takeaways13

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare10:16

    xG 0.61–0.30 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1

  2. Stamkos – Palat – Colton6:29

    xG 0.40–0.14 (75%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1

  3. Nash – Elie – Katchouk8:56

    xG 0.38–0.71 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2

  4. Killorn – Point – Joseph8:47

    xG 0.03–0.58 (5%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestHedman – Rutta9:54

    xG 1.12–0.54 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 0–3

  2. Raddysh – Day4:32

    xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0

  3. McDonagh – Hedman2:15

    xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestVatrano – Marchment – Lundell9:22

    xG 0.96–0.27 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1

  2. Huberdeau – Duclair – Reinhart9:45

    xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 3–0

  3. Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen7:32

    xG 0.39–0.65 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1

  4. Verhaeghe – Barkov – Mamin11:17

    xG 0.40–0.67 (38%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Gudas – Forsling17:04

    xG 0.98–0.97 (50%)attempts 17–19goals 3–0

  2. Gudas – Weegar2:43

    xG 0.04–0.03 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  3. Weegar – Ekblad13:26

    xG 0.59–0.65 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.7 xGTBL 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLATBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 66/100 · #523 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.83 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.

FLA winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).