Thu, Dec 30, 2021·UBS Arena, Elmont
Buffalo Sabres 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 114 | 09 | 014 | 137 |
| NYI | 19 | 212 | 111 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:35NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Josh Bailey, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 19:00BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Brett Murray, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 6:45NYIKieffer BellowsGWGAssists: Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 11:25NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Kieffer Bellows, Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 11:43NYINoah DobsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:13BUFArttu Ruotsalainen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:10NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:39BUFAnders Bjork: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 18:08NYICasey Cizikas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Hayden – Asplund4:54
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen6:07
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Eakin – Asplund – Murray6:10
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka13:05
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestButcher – Fitzgerald11:15
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Pysyk – Prow9:53
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin20:34
xG 0.50–0.70 (41%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal11:58
xG 1.09–0.29 (79%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Parise – Johnston – Czarnik9:25
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pageau – Dal Colle – Bellows12:08
xG 0.34–0.49 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:49
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Dobson17:34
xG 1.06–0.78 (57%)attempts 15–21goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Pelech15:17
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Greene – Salo12:29
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).