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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 30, 2021·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles

Vancouver Canucks 1, Los Angeles Kings 2 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 90% of the time.

LAK winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
VAN070316021118
LAK0511709042235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:39LAKBrendan LemieuxAssists: Christian Wolanin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P3 12:06VANBo HorvatPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. LAK Adrian Kempe scored
  2. 2. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
  3. 3. LAK Alex Iafallo stopped
  4. 4. VAN J.T. Miller stopped
  5. 5. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
  6. 6. VAN Bo Horvat scored
  7. 7. LAK Arthur Kaliyev stopped
  8. 8. VAN Conor Garland stopped
  9. 9. LAK Viktor Arvidsson scored
  10. 10. VAN Tanner Pearson stopped
Penalties (6)
  1. P2 12:11LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
  2. P2 12:11VANLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
  3. P2 12:11VANLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
  4. P3 0:57VANTyler Myers: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
  5. P3 11:09LAKViktor Arvidsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  6. OT 5:00LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
48% to win52% to win
← VAN attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Horvat
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANLAK
18Shots on goal35
2.0Expected goals5.1
39Shot attempts74
24Faceoffs won27
1Power plays1
4Penalty minutes6
27Hits23
17Blocked shots13
9Giveaways5
2Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. Motte – Lammikko – Highmore10:40

    xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0

  2. Garland – Pettersson – Podkolzin9:20

    xG 0.35–0.56 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0

  3. Chiasson – Miller – Pearson10:28

    xG 0.15–0.65 (19%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0

  4. Miller – Pearson – Pettersson2:10

    xG 0.00–0.61 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPoolman – Hughes5:05

    xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  2. Schenn – Burroughs3:30

    xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  3. Burroughs – Poolman6:32

    xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

Los Angeles Kings

Forward lines

  1. bestKopitar – Kempe – Iafallo16:57

    xG 1.32–0.17 (88%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0

  2. Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev13:42

    xG 0.80–0.32 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0

  3. Grundstrom – Kupari – Turcotte8:33

    xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0

  4. Danault – Arvidsson – Moore11:07

    xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestWolanin – Roy18:36

    xG 2.09–0.44 (83%)attempts 28–13goals 1–0

  2. Doughty – Anderson20:00

    xG 1.57–0.20 (89%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0

  3. Durzi – Bjornfot15:36

    xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 5.1 xGVAN 2.0 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #928 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.18 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 90% of the time.

LAK winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).