Thu, Dec 30, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Philadelphia Flyers 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 09 | 17 | 02 | 225 |
| SJS | 012 | 216 | 016 | 12 | 346 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:23PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Travis Konecny, Oskar Lindblom · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 5:20SJSLogan CoutureSHAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 7:20SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Tomas Hertl, Jake Middleton · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 15:57PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 4:29SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Noah Gregor · Slap, 0.33 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:09PHIClaude Giroux: Holding2 min
- P1 10:41PHIMax Willman: Interference2 min
- P2 3:46PHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:46SJSJeffrey Viel: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:07SJSNicolas Meloche: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:46PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min
- P3 7:33SJSTimo Meier: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:38SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:16PHIZack MacEwen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Atkinson8:15
xG 0.97–0.35 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Konecny – Frost7:48
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Brown – MacEwen – Cates6:23
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Willman2:30
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim17:41
xG 1.53–0.75 (67%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov15:36
xG 0.71–0.71 (50%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
- Yandle – Seeler9:10
xG 0.18–0.59 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Bonino – Nieto9:00
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Pederson – Viel – Gadjovich4:52
xG 0.37–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Couture – Meier – Barabanov8:26
xG 0.49–0.87 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Hertl – Dahlen – Gregor10:11
xG 0.45–0.85 (34%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Middleton15:22
xG 0.71–0.49 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Meloche5:00
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Meloche – Simek4:12
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).