Thu, Dec 30, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Calgary Flames 6, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 115 | 214 | 311 | 640 |
| SEA | 110 | 17 | 25 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48SEAMark GiordanoAssists: Colin Blackwell, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:46CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 0:09SEACalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Jared McCann, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P2 3:54CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 14:56CGYMilan LucicAssists: Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 4:59SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Colin Blackwell, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 16:51CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Oliver Kylington, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–3
- P3 17:21SEAJared McCannAssists: Mark Giordano, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 17:34CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 19:40CGYNoah HanifinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG6–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:55CGYSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:36SEAChris Driedger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:23CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:26SEAMax McCormick: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:29CGYMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:29SEAWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:41SEACarson Soucy: Interference2 min
- P2 16:48SEAAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
- P3 15:24SEAYanni Gourde: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Mangiapane – Dube9:57
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:18
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Backlund – Pitlick – Coleman8:44
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Richardson – Lewis – Monahan8:26
xG 0.02–0.36 (6%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson14:18
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Tanev – Kylington13:45
xG 0.35–0.33 (51%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov13:53
xG 0.43–0.71 (38%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Geekie11:56
xG 0.81–0.62 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Blackwell – Gourde9:16
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- McCormick – Lind – True6:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Donskoi – Wennberg10:37
xG 0.11–0.28 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Borgen12:42
xG 0.68–0.26 (73%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Giordano – Oleksiak14:20
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 3–1
- Larsson – Lauzon14:31
xG 0.10–0.61 (14%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).