Fri, Dec 31, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 3, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 19 | 213 | 327 |
| DET | 011 | 14 | 05 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:43DETPius SuterAssists: Sam Gagner, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 15:53WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Lucas Johansen, Matt Irwin · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P3 17:09WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:19WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Garnet Hathaway, John Carlson · Snap, 0.73 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:41WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:19DETMoritz Seider: Holding2 min
- P2 11:57WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:54DETGustav Lindstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:10DETMoritz Seider: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:10WSHNic Dowd: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:10DETRobby Fabbri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:54WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson8:36
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Sheary4:06
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Leason – McMichael – Protas2:52
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Sheary2:25
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Johansen10:52
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov17:47
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Orlov – van Riemsdyk2:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Fabbri – Suter8:39
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rowney – Veleno7:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Erne – Rasmussen – Zadina7:10
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond11:45
xG 0.11–0.65 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Seider13:14
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Lindstrom14:57
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Staal – Hronek14:44
xG 0.01–0.65 (2%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).